Day 12: I thought success was luck and talent until I saw what Kenyan runners actually do

I think I've been really lucky to stumble across something fundamental about business success. Looking back, I truly didn't understand what was required.

It's like dreaming of being a sports star growing up — not an unrealistic dream, but most people put it in the bucket of luck and talent. That's not the best frame for success. And it's been proven wrong in fascinating ways.

The Kenyan Marathon Reality

Take Kenyan marathon runners. For years, everyone thought their success came from genetics and growing up at altitude. That's been disproven.

The current theory that holds the most weight? It's the community of running and the understanding of what's required to be great.

There are running groups in Kenya with Olympic-level and professional runners. People coming through can mirror and see — physically watch — the level of effort required.

When I dreamed of being a sports star, I probably didn't have the talent to start with. But more importantly, I never understood the level of effort required because there was nobody in my network who had made it that I could look to or follow.

The 2D vs 3D Problem

Chris Williamson recently talked about the difference between 2D and 3D examples. The 2D example is reading it in a book or seeing a clip on social media. The 3D example is actually experiencing it — being immersed in knowing the level of work it takes.

Moving this into business: if you work it out statistically, only 1 in 1,000 businesses reach $10M+ in revenue and continue growing.

So how do you find a mentor? How do you move from a 2D example to a 3D example?

Not everyone starts or runs their own business. Out of all the people you know who have started one, you've got maybe 1 in 1,000 who have actually put in the level of work that represents something you'd want to mirror.

Finding Heroes in the Modern Age

This is where we get lucky in the modern age. We've got lots of successful people building in public, sharing and documenting their journey. You can find that 1 in 1,000 business owner who's transparent about their process.

But there are two challenges:

• You don't know whether they're going to make it
• Because they're ahead of you on their journey, a lot of what they're saying isn't relevant to where you are right now

Seth Godin has a good approach here. When it's difficult to find a mentor in your immediate domain, look to heroes — people you can track who have already made it.

The Key Nuance

Here's what I've learned: following someone building a billion-dollar company isn't relevant if you're trying to find your first $100K. Even following someone who's built a $50M company when you're at $100K — there are things they're saying that just don't apply.

The key is finding heroes who are building in public and documenting what they've done and how they've done it.

But here's the crucial part: it's not about following what they're saying now or their current morning routine. That's not what got them there.

You need to follow what got them from zero to $100K, or $100K to $2M, or whatever your specific goal is. Study that phase of their journey, not where they are today.

The Hard But Simple Truth

It's difficult to execute but not hard to understand: just do what they say was required and don't shortcut it.

This connects to Alex Hormozi's concept around "just do the 100" — the first 100 hours or 100 days of the thing you need to do. Simple concept.

But the real difficulty is in repeating that for the next 100, and the next 100 after that. Just executing on that, without compromise, without looking for the hack or the easier way.

That's the level of effort required.

The question is whether you're ready to see it clearly and commit to it fully.